Doctors in an intensive care unit amid COVID-19 pandemic. Image by skeeze from Pixabay

COVID-19 Curative Education: When coronavirus pandemic will end

Watch video of when coronavirus (COVID-19) will end

Watch video of when coronavirus (COVID-19) will end

Current Global Situation of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Pandemic

COVID-19 (coronavirus) is here to stay

We can only get ready for coronavirus infection now but not stop it

We will experience waves of coronavirus infections

Who is likely to get infected? The classes of people likely to get infected

Preventive Measures are delaying vaccine development and mass immunity (Curative Measures)

Herd immunity as the solution (Cure): Uncertainty all the way

Not less than 2.5 billion of the world population would need COVID-19 vaccine or be infected with the virus to bring it to an end

Should we allow people to get infected and then recover as a way of ending COVID-19 soon?

How long would the vaccine remain active in the human body?

The aftermath effect of the end of first coronavirus pandemic: What happens after the COVID-19 comes to an end?

Current Global Situation of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Pandemic

SARS-CoV-2, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is a global pandemic with Italy, China, and Spain as the hardest-hit countries in the world today. The number of infections has continued to rise at an alarming rate in the past one month and perhaps multiple chains of transmission are on-going in dozens of countries.

You can also see: How strict restriction is delaying vaccine development

COVID-19 (coronavirus) is here to stay

The current COVID-19 (coronavirus) is here to stay. It is a highly transmissible virus that can spread like wildfire, capable of infecting a good number of people in a short time. It can only end with mass immunity. But once a population gets immune, the pandemic ceases to rage ahead as the virus runs into walls of immunity.

It has been asserted that the world has missed the stage at which the virus can be contained just like it was for SARS and MERS.

We can only get ready for coronavirus infection now but not stop it

It is estimated that this pandemic will likely affect more over 3.5 billion people globally resulting in about 3.5 million deaths; 35 million would require medical attention. The infection figure could reach 5 billion. The medical infrastructures in hospitals would be overstretched if these hospitalizations and deaths occur before the vaccine is discovered, leaving no space for the care of people with other medical conditions.

We all should be ready for living a normal life amid the virus pandemic.

We will experience waves of coronavirus infections

If we fail to get the vaccine in the next six months, we should expect prolonged painful times in this first wave of infections.

The strain of the virus that causes a devastating endemic in this first wave of infection will later produce mild seasonal pandemics with decreased infection figure and as susceptible individuals to the infection reduces, subsequent waves of infection weaken until it becomes history. But this might take decades.

So, life would return to normal after this first pandemic and administration of new drugs and intense public health action would help to end the virus infection even if there is no developed vaccine.

If the collective efforts of national governments and international organizations succeed in suppressing surge in the coming weeks in their respective countries without the herd immunity, the virus will surely raise its ugly head once again. In the absence of robust herd immunity at the population level, we have some risk of a second wave of the epidemic

Who is likely to get infected? The classes of people likely to get infected

The classes of people likely to get infected are the elderly and those with basic health conditions. Younger people and children can experience serious illness. But expect changes in the age distribution of the infection once it becomes established.

81% of recorded deaths in Wuhan, China as of February 11 were in people over 60 years of age, and only one death out of 1,023 was in a person younger than 20. But, because this is a new virus, everyone is susceptible regardless of their age.

That notwithstanding, everyone is prone to infection to the new virus regardless of age or status.

Preventive Measures are delaying vaccine development and mass immunity (Curative Measures)

Enforcement of social distancing, such as closing schools, canceling large public events and mass gatherings and urging people to work from home, possibly and others, are preventive measures many countries of the world are employing to quash the spread in cases and stop the virus pandemic. If these give the expected results, the tension on hospitals would be lessened.

Strict restrictions (broad social distancing, extensive testing, closure of schools and stay-at-home exercise) are suppressing the pandemic and preventing deaths but delaying herd immunity

Strict restrictions (broad social distancing, closure of schools and stay-at-home exercise) as well as contact tracing, expanded testing and isolation exercises are slowing it down and preventing deaths but the impact of doing that everywhere could be even worse than the disease itself. It is delaying herd immunity which appears to be the solution to the pandemic.

Herd immunity as the solution (Cure): Uncertainty all the way

Several questions have been asked about the pandemic COVID-19 but one question that is many probably ask, as the modern world progressively migrates to a close halt, is: When will coronavirus pandemic come to an end?

Nobody is certain about the time it will end but it is unlikely to be any time soon and there is much still unknown about the virus.

Would the strict restrictions be sustained as the weeks wear on? At present, there are too many uncertainties to know how and when to achieve herd immunity. If the wait for a vaccine exceeds a particular time, the societies might swing into the action of seeking remedies for themselves, ignoring scientific and medical advice.

Not less than 2.5 billion of the world population would need COVID-19 vaccine or be infected with the virus to bring it to an end

At least 2.5 billion of the world population would need COVID-19 vaccine to bring it to an end because the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 of any given population is not expected to be less than 34%.

Should we allow people to get infected and then recover as a way of ending COVID-19 soon?

People acquire immunity against a virus in two ways: Firstly, they can be infected with the virus and then allowed to recover — attaining to certain level of antibody protection — and secondly, they get a vaccine against the virus.

Some scientific reports say that the fastest way to mass immunity which would bring the pandemic to an end would be to let the virus burn through the entire world’s populace unchecked since it would take not less than 1 year to make a vaccine available. However, the costs of such an approach would be devastating because not less than 80% US population would need to be infected and up to 2 million deaths may be recorded in the US. 250,000 people could die in the UK and the strict restrictions could last up to a year and six months.

How long would the vaccine remain active in the human body?

It hasn’t been said how long people who receive the vaccine would remain immune but so far it seems that they aren’t readily re-infected. In fact, we don’t know if infection with the COVID-19 confers long-lasting immunity. Even if humans get partial herd immunity, the subsequent virus infections and its associated illness will almost certainly be less severe than the first. So also will be the mildness of the second wave or force of infection.

Aftermath effect of the end of first coronavirus pandemic: What happens after the COVID-19 comes to an end?

The virus will continue to circulate after the pandemic, but it will be less and less dangerous with year after year.

Vaccine development would significantly help to cut the mortality rate faster than relying on the adverse age effect on the virus.

Enormous Economic Loss

Everyone knows that shutting down the economies of many countries would result in unprecedented economic loss. The economic costs would be enormous globally, particularly to vulnerable members of the international community. In clear terms, the COVID-19 pandemic could cost the global economy $2.7 trillion.